PlanB analyst criticized for using conflicting arguments to justify Bitcoin’s growth
PlanB analyst, known for adapting the Stock-to-Flow model to Bitcoin to justify the multiple growth of its rate in the future, gave another bullish forecast on June 17.
In a series of tweets, PlanB noted the high correlation of bitcoin price and S stock index&P 500 with a coefficient of determination of 95%. Given the high relationship between the two values and their mutual rapid recovery after the March collapse, PlanB states that Bitcoin should now be worth $ 18,000. The model will be correct even if S falls.&P 500.
The analyst also notes that this data fits into the Stock-to-Flow model, which suggests that Bitcoin will rise to $ 288,000 or higher by the next halving in 2024..
“Printing money nudges like S&P 500 and Bitcoin, ”he adds.
Twitter users, meanwhile, recalled a September post from PlanB, when he, in response to a question about whether bitcoin is a non-correlated asset, wrote: “Yes, bitcoin has been a non-correlated asset for 10 years, but the real test awaits it in a stressful situation (recession ), which we have not had since 2008, but which is about to come “.
Economist Alex Kruger has previously warned about the dangers of using Stock-to-Flow and other statistical models to make investment decisions. “The S2F model is to bulls what Tether manipulation is to bears. Both arguments are based on attractive statistical models and have significant drawbacks. I doubt that those who believe in these extremes will change their point of view. They believe in what they want to believe, “he said.
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